Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ZCA963055
Maybelline New-York - Rouge à Lèvres Mat Liquide - Longue Tenue - Superstay Matte Ink - Teinte : Believer(40) 5 ml
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
2
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
7
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 46
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-02
ZCA963055
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 32 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New-York - Rouge à Lèvres Mat Liquide - Longue Tenue - Superstay Matte Ink - Teinte : Believer(40) 5 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (560 days of history, 37 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.86 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 10.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 32.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |