Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ZCA962920
Maybelline Superstay Matte Ink Rouge à Lèvres 15 Lover
midtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-87.5%
vs same 4w last year (8 units)
Current stock
23
≈ 6.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 80
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-01
ZCA962920
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 111 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline Superstay Matte Ink Rouge à Lèvres 15 Lover · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 23 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1134 days of history, 112 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.09 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 110.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.9K |