Demand Forecast
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SKU · ZCA842000
L’Oréal Paris - Soin transformateur disciplinant Elseve Jojoba — 100 ml — Cheveux très secs
midtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
24
▼ 29.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+50.0%
vs same 4w last year (16 units)
Current stock
5
≈ 1.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 97
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
ZCA842000
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 170 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L’Oréal Paris - Soin transformateur disciplinant Elseve Jojoba — 100 ml — Cheveux très secs · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 24 units, trending down -29.4% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1134 days of history, 453 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.83 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 24 units · prev 4w = 34 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 7.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 29.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 73.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 14.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 61.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 169.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 16.4K |