Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ZCA544308
Neutrogena Hydro Boost Nettoyant Aqua-Gel Hydratant 200ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 90.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
68
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
3
≈ 2.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 54
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
ZCA544308
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 79 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Neutrogena Hydro Boost Nettoyant Aqua-Gel Hydratant 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -90.3% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1204 days of history, 112 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.92 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 31 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 39.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 79.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.3K |