Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ZCA544191
Neutrogena Hydro Boost Aqua-Gel Hydratant 50ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▼ 60.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-68.6%
vs same 4w last year (35 units)
Current stock
48
≈ 12.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 73
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
ZCA544191
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 168 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Neutrogena Hydro Boost Aqua-Gel Hydratant 50ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending down -60.7% · on-hand 48 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1141 days of history, 267 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 28 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 24.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 64.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 56.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 168.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.2K |