Demand Forecast
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SKU · ZCA198244
Gel douche L'OREAL Men Pure Carbon Action Totale 5 en 1 - 300 ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-83.9%
vs same 4w last year (31 units)
Current stock
4
≈ 3.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-09
ZCA198244
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 59 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel douche L'OREAL Men Pure Carbon Action Totale 5 en 1 - 300 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +25.0% · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1162 days of history, 71 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.94 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 18.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 59.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |