Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ZCA198244
Gel douche L'OREAL Men Pure Carbon Action Totale 5 en 1 - 300 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▼ 31.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
19
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 0.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
ZCA198244
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 77 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel douche L'OREAL Men Pure Carbon Action Totale 5 en 1 - 300 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending down -31.2% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1218 days of history, 73 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.91 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 1 week → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 40.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 77.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.3K |