Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · XIA1729017211119
Montre connectée Xiaomi Redmi Watch 5 Active avec bracelet Noir
midtail
1P
MONTRE INTELLIGENTE - MONTRE CONNECTEE
Last 4 weeks demand
36
▲ 500.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
11
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
11
≈ 2.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 300
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
XIA1729017211119
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 299 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Montre connectée Xiaomi Redmi Watch 5 Active avec bracelet Noir · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 36 units, trending up +500.0% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (714 days of history, 192 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 36 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 80.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 19.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 67.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 299.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 89.8K |