Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · VIT5021265246090
Vitabiotics - Perfectil Original Triple Action - 30 Comprimés
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▼ 44.8% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-15.8%
vs same 4w last year (19 units)
Current stock
3,870
≈ 521.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 140
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
VIT5021265246090
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 290 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vitabiotics - Perfectil Original Triple Action - 30 Comprimés · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending down -44.8% · on-hand 3870 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1183 days of history, 306 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.10 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 29 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 25.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 82.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 15.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 76.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 290.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 40.7K |