Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · VAR4005900036162
Déodorant - NIVEA MEN - Black & White Original - Roll-on 50ml - Sans alcool - Parfum masculin
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
40
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
10
≈ 15.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-09
VAR4005900036162
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 38 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant - NIVEA MEN - Black & White Original - Roll-on 50ml - Sans alcool - Parfum masculin · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +66.7% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1022 days of history, 46 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 12.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 38.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 982 |