Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · VAR4005808890590
Crème de soin hydratante - NIVEA - Soft - 100 ml - Pot plastique - Tous types de peau
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 75.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+180.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
24
≈ 8.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 17
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
VAR4005808890590
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 156 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème de soin hydratante - NIVEA - Soft - 100 ml - Pot plastique - Tous types de peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -75.9% · on-hand 24 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1099 days of history, 182 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.39 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 58 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 16.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 42.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 56.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 155.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |