Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · VAR4005808890590
Crème de soin hydratante - NIVEA - Soft - 100 ml - Pot plastique - Tous types de peau
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
111
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
21
≈ 7.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 17
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-29
VAR4005808890590
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 141 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème de soin hydratante - NIVEA - Soft - 100 ml - Pot plastique - Tous types de peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, stable demand · on-hand 21 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1218 days of history, 192 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.38 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 49.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 141.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.4K |