Demand Forecast
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SKU · TEFK1220714
TEFAL FRESH KITCHEN Couteau office 12 cm + étui
longtail
3P
DECOUPE DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 11.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+166.7%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
7
≈ 4.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 54
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-02
TEFK1220714
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 72 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
TEFAL FRESH KITCHEN Couteau office 12 cm + étui · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -11.1% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (490 days of history, 87 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.9K |