Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · TEF3168430256477
TEFAL FRESH KITCHEN Couteau à éplucher avec étui 9cm K1220614 gris
longtail
3P
DECOUPE DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 18.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+50.0%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
9
≈ 5.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 46
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
TEF3168430256477
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
TEFAL FRESH KITCHEN Couteau à éplucher avec étui 9cm K1220614 gris · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -18.2% · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (490 days of history, 94 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 70.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.2K |