Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · TEC5021769295334
technic - Invite Only Palette 15 fards à paupières - 21,9g Rose
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
6
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 57
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
TEC5021769295334
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 58 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
technic - Invite Only Palette 15 fards à paupières - 21,9g Rose · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1078 days of history, 57 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 58.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |