Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · TAU900419
Pack Beauty Essentie TAURUS – Sèche-Cheveux + Lisseur – 1800 W
midtail
1P + 3P
COIFFURE
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 12.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
130
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
80
≈ 12.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 259
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
TAU900419
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 345 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pack Beauty Essentie TAURUS – Sèche-Cheveux + Lisseur – 1800 W · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -12.5% · on-hand 78 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1169 days of history, 595 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.05 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 8.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 37.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 157.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 18.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 80.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 344.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 89.1K |