Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · TAU8414234610010
Grille-pain TAURUS My Toast II - Blanc - 2 emplacements - 750W - Fonction dégivrage
longtail
3P
PETIT DEJEUNER - CAFE
Last 4 weeks demand
13
▼ 38.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+160.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
104
≈ 49.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 192
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-08
TAU8414234610010
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 136 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Grille-pain TAURUS My Toast II - Blanc - 2 emplacements - 750W - Fonction dégivrage · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 13 units, trending down -38.1% · on-hand 104 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1127 days of history, 219 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.93 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 13 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 20.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 48.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 13.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 49.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 135.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 26.0K |