Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · SUD5017007601289
Sudocrem - Crème de soin antiseptique / guérison 125g
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
21
≈ 17.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 115
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
SUD5017007601289
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 68 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sudocrem - Crème de soin antiseptique / guérison 125g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -80.0% · on-hand 21 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1036 days of history, 75 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 23.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 67.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.8K |