Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · STA4007817148044
STAEDTLER Crayons de couleur
longtail
3P
DESSIN - COLORIAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
233
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-16
STA4007817148044
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 62 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
STAEDTLER Crayons de couleur · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 243 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1169 days of history, 66 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.02 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 24 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 14.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 61.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 642 |