Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · SKY5011831092107
Preservatifs Skyn Original - Boite 3 préservatifs
longtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Year-over-year
-90.9%
vs same 4w last year (11 units)
Current stock
1
≈ 0.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 21
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-03-31
SKY5011831092107
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 55 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Preservatifs Skyn Original - Boite 3 préservatifs · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1092 days of history, 36 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 15.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 54.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |