Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · SAF3700399100462
Soin Lavant - Saforelle - Ultra Hydratant - 250ml - Sans phénoxyéthanol - Tous types de peau
longtail
3P
HYGIENE INTIME
Last 4 weeks demand
4
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
192
Σ Stock across 11 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 65
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-02
SAF3700399100462
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 57 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Soin Lavant - Saforelle - Ultra Hydratant - 250ml - Sans phénoxyéthanol - Tous types de peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 192 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (777 days of history, 44 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.55 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 16.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 57.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.7K |