Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · PIL4902505163180
Stylo bille PILOT G2 rétractable bleu - PILOT - G2 - Moyenne - Bleu - Rétractable
longtail
3P
ECRITURE - CALLIGRAPHIE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
199
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 15
avg of last 20 sells · latest 2026-05-07
PIL4902505163180
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Stylo bille PILOT G2 rétractable bleu - PILOT - G2 - Moyenne - Bleu - Rétractable · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +100.0% · on-hand 199 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (630 days of history, 43 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.22 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 23.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 70.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.0K |