Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · OLD0012044037539
Déodorant – Old Spice Swagger – Parfum Cedarwood – Sans Aluminium – 85 g (3 oz)
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
28
▼ 31.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
188
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 40
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
OLD0012044037539
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 168 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant – Old Spice Swagger – Parfum Cedarwood – Sans Aluminium – 85 g (3 oz) · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 28 units, trending down -31.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (357 days of history, 198 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 28 units · prev 4w = 41 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 27.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 87.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 49.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 167.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.7K |