Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · NIV4005900241238
NIVEA SUN Huile Protectrice en Spray FPS 6 - 200 ml
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▲ 166.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+100.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
333
≈ 472.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 79
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-27
NIV4005900241238
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA SUN Huile Protectrice en Spray FPS 6 - 200 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending up +166.7% · on-hand 333 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1106 days of history, 66 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 29.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 117.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.3K |