Demand Forecast

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NIVEA SUN Huile Protectrice en Spray FPS 6 - 200 ml
SKU · NIV4005900241238

NIVEA SUN Huile Protectrice en Spray FPS 6 - 200 ml

longtail 3P SOLAIRES
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

8
▲ 166.7% vs prev 4w

Year-over-year

+100.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)

Current stock

333
≈ 472.7 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 79
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-27

NIV4005900241238

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

NIVEA SUN Huile Protectrice en Spray FPS 6 - 200 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending up +166.7% · on-hand 333 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (1106 days of history, 66 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 3 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week1.8 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks7.9 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months29.0 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week6.7 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)29.8 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)117.7 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)2.2
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 9.3K