Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · NIV4005808816194
Nivea Déodorant atomiseur femme fresh natural 200ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 53.8% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
251
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 1.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 25
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
NIV4005808816194
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 72 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Nivea Déodorant atomiseur femme fresh natural 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -53.8% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1253 days of history, 66 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.69 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 10.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 36.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |