Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · NIV4005808293803
Déodorant - NIVEA MEN - Dry Impact - Roll-on 50ml - Protection 48h - Parfum frais
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+350.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
41
≈ 49.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
NIV4005808293803
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 80 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant - NIVEA MEN - Dry Impact - Roll-on 50ml - Protection 48h - Parfum frais · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 41 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1127 days of history, 53 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.84 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 27 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 28.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 80.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.6K |