Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · NEW0196821893508
New era - Casquette homme Bleu marine
longtail
1P
ACCESSOIRE MODE
Last 4 weeks demand
17
▼ 19.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
1
≈ 0.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 163
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
NEW0196821893508
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 159 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
New era - Casquette homme Bleu marine · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 17 units, trending down -19.0% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (252 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.62 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 17 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 41.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 44.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 158.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 25.8K |