Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · NEW0194790986207
Casquette - NEW ERA - Diamond era 9forty neyyan - Taille unique - Gris - Style urbain
midtail
1P
ACCESSOIRE MODE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 28.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
71
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
71
≈ 18.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 160
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
NEW0194790986207
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 282 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Casquette - NEW ERA - Diamond era 9forty neyyan - Taille unique - Gris - Style urbain · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -28.6% · on-hand 71 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (371 days of history, 201 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 79.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 19.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 56.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 281.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 45.1K |