Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · NEU3574661039732
Neutrogena Visibly Clear Shine & Pore Gel Matifiant 200ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▲ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
30
Σ Stock across 4 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 74
avg of last 13 sells · latest 2025-08-27
NEU3574661039732
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 37 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Neutrogena Visibly Clear Shine & Pore Gel Matifiant 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending up +100.0% · on-hand 30 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1099 days of history, 4 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.24 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 9.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 37.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.8K |