Demand Forecast

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Parfum Bébé-enfant Mustela (200 ml)
SKU · MUS3504105036027

Parfum Bébé-enfant Mustela (200 ml)

longtail 3P HYGIENE BEBE
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

4
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w

Year-over-year

-92.0%
vs same 4w last year (50 units)

Current stock

253
≈ 93.0 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 70
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04

MUS3504105036027

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 125 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

Parfum Bébé-enfant Mustela (200 ml) · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 253 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (1120 days of history, 67 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 0.96 — moderate
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 7 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week2.3 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks10.8 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months35.0 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week7.2 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)33.0 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)124.6 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)2.7
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 8.7K