Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MP189986520-9995
T-shirt - UNDER ARMOUR - Bleu - Manches courtes - Col chemise - Coupe Regular
longtail
1P
CHEMISE - TUNIQUE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 85.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
41
Σ Stock across 2 live offers
1P stock
7
≈ 16.6 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 167
avg of last 13 sells · latest 2026-05-03
MP189986520-9995
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 53 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
T-shirt - UNDER ARMOUR - Bleu - Manches courtes - Col chemise - Coupe Regular · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -85.7% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (371 days of history, 18 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 14.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 53.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.9K |