Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MON1721206254117
MON1721206254117
longtail
1P
JEUX DE RECRE - JEUX D'EXTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
59
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-11-03
1P stock
59
≈ 132.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-11-03
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 1 sells · latest 2026-09-02
MON1721206254117
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-11-02 · Total forecast: 80 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
MON1721206254117 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 59 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (56 days of history, 4 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 4.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 80.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 796 |