Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MIX3600551125305
Lait Solaire - Mixa - Dermo Protect - SPF50+ - 175ml - Peaux Sensibles
longtail
1P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▲ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 1.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 116
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
MIX3600551125305
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 128 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lait Solaire - Mixa - Dermo Protect - SPF50+ - 175ml - Peaux Sensibles · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending up +50.0% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (791 days of history, 76 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 55.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 128.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.9K |