Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MIX1697680923532
Mixa Crème Céramide Protection 400ml
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 79.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
607
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 82
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
MIX1697680923532
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 313 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mixa Crème Céramide Protection 400ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -79.5% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (630 days of history, 1,166 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.69 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 39 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 18.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 101.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 49.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 313.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 25.7K |