Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MIX1696988379815
Mixa Crème Cica Reparation Peaux Très Sèches et Rugueuses Visage, Corps, Mains - 400ml
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
183
▼ 47.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+273.5%
vs same 4w last year (49 units)
Current stock
867
≈ 45.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 97
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
MIX1696988379815
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 803 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mixa Crème Cica Reparation Peaux Très Sèches et Rugueuses Visage, Corps, Mains - 400ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 183 units, trending down -47.9% · on-hand 867 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (504 days of history, 1,209 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.03 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 183 units · prev 4w = 351 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 58.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 184.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 381.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 104.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 395.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 803.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 29.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 78.0K |