Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MIX1694914245731
Mixa Lait Céramide Protection 250ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
76
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
48
≈ 20.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 59
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-26
MIX1694914245731
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 146 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mixa Lait Céramide Protection 250ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, stable demand · on-hand 48 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (602 days of history, 159 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 18.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 69.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 146.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.6K |