Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MIX1692494110592
Lait pour bébé - Mixa - Confort Panthénol - Hydratant - Apaisant - 250 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 28.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
253
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
54
≈ 24.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 57
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
MIX1692494110592
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 175 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lait pour bébé - Mixa - Confort Panthénol - Hydratant - Apaisant - 250 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -28.6% · on-hand 54 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (679 days of history, 143 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 2 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 42.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 14.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 54.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 175.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.0K |