Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MIX1692494109857
Mixa Lait Cica Réparation 250ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▼ 59.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
17
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
5
≈ 1.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 57
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
MIX1692494109857
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 137 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mixa Lait Cica Réparation 250ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending down -59.3% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (567 days of history, 171 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 27 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 21.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 73.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 37.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 137.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.8K |