Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MGD3505631200432
Propolis 120 gélules
longtail
3P
COMPLEMENTS ALIMENTAIRES - THE INFUSION
Last 4 weeks demand
20
▲ 5.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+17.6%
vs same 4w last year (17 units)
Current stock
7,597
≈ 3290.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 133
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
MGD3505631200432
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 87 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Propolis 120 gélules · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 20 units, trending up +5.3% · on-hand 7597 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1036 days of history, 174 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 20 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 86.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.5K |