Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MEL8470001847607
Écran solaire - Heliocare - 360 Mineral Tolerance - SPF50 - 50ml - Texture fluide
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 61.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
862
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 183
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-24
MEL8470001847607
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 102 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Écran solaire - Heliocare - 360 Mineral Tolerance - SPF50 - 50ml - Texture fluide · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -61.5% · on-hand 1010 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (882 days of history, 170 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 35.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 101.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 18.6K |