Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MEL8470001847607
Écran solaire - Heliocare - 360 Mineral Tolerance - SPF50 - 50ml - Texture fluide
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▼ 18.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+50.0%
vs same 4w last year (12 units)
Current stock
17
≈ 11.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 171
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
MEL8470001847607
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 144 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Écran solaire - Heliocare - 360 Mineral Tolerance - SPF50 - 50ml - Texture fluide · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending down -18.2% · on-hand 17 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (770 days of history, 145 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 22 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 16.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 44.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 50.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 143.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 24.5K |