Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MAY3600531605674
Gloss à lèvres - MAYBELLINE - Matte Ink 175 Ringleader - 5ml - Waterproof - Fini mat longue tenue
longtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
13
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 0.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 88
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-25
MAY3600531605674
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 54 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gloss à lèvres - MAYBELLINE - Matte Ink 175 Ringleader - 5ml - Waterproof - Fini mat longue tenue · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (707 days of history, 43 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.62 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 24.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 54.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.7K |