Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MAY3600531584696
Maybelline Falsies Lash Lift Mascara Noir
midtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 37.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-47.4%
vs same 4w last year (19 units)
Current stock
21
≈ 5.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 103
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-02
MAY3600531584696
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 129 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline Falsies Lash Lift Mascara Noir · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -37.5% · on-hand 21 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1064 days of history, 169 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 17.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 43.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 129.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 13.3K |