Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MAY3600531584696
Maybelline Falsies Lash Lift Mascara Noir
midtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▲ 12.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
5
≈ 1.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 101
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
MAY3600531584696
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 127 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline Falsies Lash Lift Mascara Noir · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending up +12.5% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1120 days of history, 153 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 61.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 126.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.9K |