Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MAY0000030166967
Maybelline Sky High Mascara Volume Noir Intense
hero
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▲ 5.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-80.4%
vs same 4w last year (92 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 92
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
MAY0000030166967
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 242 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline Sky High Mascara Volume Noir Intense · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending up +5.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1134 days of history, 398 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.04 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 24.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 74.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 65.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 242.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 22.3K |