Demand Forecast

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Maybelline Sky High Mascara Volume Noir Intense
SKU · MAY0000030166967

Maybelline Sky High Mascara Volume Noir Intense

hero 3P MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS OUT OF STOCK
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w

Offer Stock

13
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05

1P stock

0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot

Unit price

MAD 96
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-29

MAY0000030166967

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 287 units.
Actual Realistic forecast Optimistic Out of stock

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

Maybelline Sky High Mascara Volume Noir Intense · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: hero (1190 days of history, 250 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 1.07 — moderate
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 1 week → past demand likely understated
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic forecast — next week4.5 units
Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks22.1 units
Realistic forecast — next 3 months115.4 units
Optimistic — next week8.9 units
Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target)48.4 units
Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)286.8 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)4.7
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 27.5K