Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MAN5011831090509
Manix Skyn Gel Lubrifiant All Night Long Efficacité Longue Durée 80ml
longtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
93
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 90
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
MAN5011831090509
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 66 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Manix Skyn Gel Lubrifiant All Night Long Efficacité Longue Durée 80ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +25.0% · on-hand 63 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1092 days of history, 98 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 32.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 65.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.9K |