Demand Forecast
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SKU · MAN5011831090509
Manix Skyn Gel Lubrifiant All Night Long Efficacité Longue Durée 80ml
longtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 28.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+25.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
61
≈ 58.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 87
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
MAN5011831090509
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 60 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Manix Skyn Gel Lubrifiant All Night Long Efficacité Longue Durée 80ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -28.6% · on-hand 61 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1036 days of history, 94 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 16.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 60.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.3K |