Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MAN3532281631705
Manix Skyn Original 20 préservatifs
longtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
18
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
-5.3%
vs same 4w last year (19 units)
Current stock
86
≈ 38.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 146
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-08
MAN3532281631705
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 77 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Manix Skyn Original 20 préservatifs · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, stable demand · on-hand 86 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (994 days of history, 158 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 25.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 76.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.2K |