Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MAN3532281624806
Manix Gel de Massage Gourmand Fraise Onctueuse 200ml
longtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▲ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+20.0%
vs same 4w last year (15 units)
Current stock
119
≈ 51.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 82
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
MAN3532281624806
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 121 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Manix Gel de Massage Gourmand Fraise Onctueuse 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending up +100.0% · on-hand 119 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1141 days of history, 190 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 121.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.0K |