Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · MAN3532281624806
Manix Gel de Massage Gourmand Fraise Onctueuse 200ml
longtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▲ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
310
Σ Stock across 7 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 84
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
MAN3532281624806
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 135 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Manix Gel de Massage Gourmand Fraise Onctueuse 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending up +20.0% · on-hand 231 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1253 days of history, 164 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.69 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 48.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 134.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.3K |