Demand Forecast
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SKU · LUM0883314714609
Assiette à dessert 19cm Diwali Noir Luminarc - 6 pièces
longtail
3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-100.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
108
≈ 67.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
LUM0883314714609
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 261 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Assiette à dessert 19cm Diwali Noir Luminarc - 6 pièces · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 108 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (707 days of history, 55 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.30 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 51.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 63.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 261.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.1K |