Demand Forecast
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SKU · LUM0883314321487
6 verres à thé Elysées 16cl LUMINARC
midtail
1P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 85.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+50.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
25
≈ 7.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 44
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
LUM0883314321487
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 142 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
6 verres à thé Elysées 16cl LUMINARC · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -85.7% · on-hand 25 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1197 days of history, 422 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.61 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 19.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 46.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 13.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 50.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 141.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.3K |