Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LUM0883314321487
6 verres à thé Elysées 16cl LUMINARC
midtail
3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
354
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 46
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-21
LUM0883314321487
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 984 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
6 verres à thé Elysées 16cl LUMINARC · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +25.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1309 days of history, 445 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.62 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 9.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 308.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 18.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 16.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 68.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 984.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 45.5K |