Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LUM0026102895207
Assiette Creuse Noire 21 cm – Collection Carine Noir – Luminarc
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▲ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
160
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
53
≈ 18.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 11
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-25
LUM0026102895207
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 162 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Assiette Creuse Noire 21 cm – Collection Carine Noir – Luminarc · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending up +14.3% · on-hand 53 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (777 days of history, 272 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.08 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 24.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 76.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 47.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 162.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |