Demand Forecast
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SKU · LUM0026102895146
Assiette creuse blanche 21 cm - Carine Blanc - Luminarc
longtail
3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▲ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
248
≈ 304.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 11
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
LUM0026102895146
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 145 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Assiette creuse blanche 21 cm - Carine Blanc - Luminarc · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending up +14.3% · on-hand 248 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1162 days of history, 45 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 33.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 40.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 145.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.6K |