Demand Forecast
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SKU · LUM0026102895139
Assiette plate blanche 26 cm - Carine Blanc - Luminarc
longtail
1P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 57.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+9.1%
vs same 4w last year (11 units)
Current stock
23
≈ 8.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 11
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
LUM0026102895139
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 170 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Assiette plate blanche 26 cm - Carine Blanc - Luminarc · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -57.1% · on-hand 23 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (819 days of history, 221 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.03 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 28 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 6.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 23.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 52.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 17.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 66.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 169.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.9K |