Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LO819543017
L'Oréal Paris Elseve Huile Extraordinaire Soin Universel 100ml
midtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
25
▲ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
280
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
150
≈ 25.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 99
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
LO819543017
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 138 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Paris Elseve Huile Extraordinaire Soin Universel 100ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 25 units, trending up +25.0% · on-hand 150 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1260 days of history, 230 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.28 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 25 units · prev 4w = 20 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 31.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 17.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 53.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 138.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 13.7K |